Archive for the 'climate change' Category

Weatherbill…a market for wacky weather protection

One of my favorite blogs, Paul Kedrosky’s Infections Greed has a post today on a new company called WeatherBill.
WeatherBill is:

In effect, a tool to allow people to create their own weather-related
short- and long-term insurance policies — and it will appeal to a
broad swath of companies whose business are weather-affected.

It appears to essentially be a marketplace where people can first evaluate what bad weather costs them in terms of sales, then they can purchase short or long term insurance plans to cover themselves from these losses going forward. On the other side it gives investors the opportunity to own these contracts or create their own that businesses can purchase. It appears it may definitely take some work to build up an efficient market, but I believe that the rapidly changing and increasingly sporadic weather makes a service like this definitely worth watching.

First snow!

This morning I spotted my first snowflake of the year while walking through Washington Sq. Park. Others spotted it, and recorded it. The National Weather Service recorded the snow officially at 9:55am in Central Park, making this the latest occurrence of the first winter snowfall in the park since records began more than 100 years ago. Without getting too deep in my nerd weather talk, there is a definite pattern shift occurring, and temps should be normal (around 33 for highs, which we’ll be above today) or below normal over the next month or so. I’m also excited by the timing because Feb historically is the snowiest month for New York City, with almost all of the major snowstorms in city history occurring in the month. In fact, there’s some proof a decent Nor’easter could occur in the next 10-15 days.

With the new cold in NYC came the announcement yesterday, that 2006 was the warmest year ever recorded worldwide, and about 1.2 degrees above the normal worldwide mean temp of 55F. That may not sound like much, but is significant and most likely a record soon to be broken again (most likely in next 5-10 years). Six of the 10 warmest winters in US history have occurred in the last 15 years, and I think we’ll continue to break records like this. Winters like this will continue to accelerate the melting of Artic Ice cover, until we are free of Artic Ice cover in summertime of 2040 (hard to believe!), according to a study released last month, which quite frankly would be very, very bad.

I’m not proclaiming the end of the world, nor am I saying we should all go out and buy hybrids, I’m just presenting some more background on this winter’s unbelievable weather, that some say has not been seen since before the last ice ages occurred roughly 110,000 years ago. That’s pretty amazing.
Oh well, now on to check out the odds over at tradesports (yes, you can gamble on weather, crazy) for NYC snowfall..I think the 10inches contract looks good!

Winter Warmth…

NYC tied the all-time warmest January temp ever yesterday with a high of 72, a full 34 degrees higher than the norm. NYC has only hit 70 in jan 3 times since 1869. Just crazy!

Winter Warmth…

More on unusual warmth

As you may be able to tell by now, I’m very interested in weather and climate change and somewhat alarmed by this winter’s warmth. (take a look at the 5 day for new york: Picture 1)

In a post over on Wunder Blog, Dr. Jeff Master’s went into further detail on just how unusual this widespread winter warmth and lack of snow really is. Look at the departure from normal snow depths at this time of year:
You’ll see that places like Michigan’s Upper Peninsula that normally are buried under 2 feet of snow this time of year, have barely seen an inch. Despite all the news coverage about blizzards in Colorado, this past December really was exceptionally warm, with temps running on average of 5-20 degrees above normal. But warm winters happen, and although they have been happening a lot more recently, this winter seems different.

The earth has a way of balancing things out, so as it is exceptionally warm in one place like it has been here, it usually is exceptionally cool in another place (like Europe or Russia).
This winter, however, has been incredibly warm across the Northern Hemisphere (although the summer in the Southern Hemisphere has been below normal). From Dr. Masters:

A persistent kink in the jet stream pattern typically sets up in these
cases, pumping cold air from the pole down to one region, and warm
subtropical air northwards into an adjacent region. However, that is
not the case this year. Land areas in huge areas of the Northern
Hemisphere, including most of Asia (Figure 4), have temperatures well
above normal. This is something I’ve never seen before–there’s almost
no cold Arctic air to be found.

Why is this scary, and potentially dangerous to have such warm winters?

The Arctic Ice Cap has shrunk by about 20% since 1979, and at the end of November this year, the amount of sea ice in the Arctic was about 2 million square kilometers less than had even been seen in any previous November. December has also seen the lowest sea ice coverage for any December on record. All this exposed water provides a huge source of heat and moisture in
the Arctic that retards the formation of the usual cold air masses over the adjacent regions of Canada and Siberia… the record low sea ice in the Arctic is probably a significant contributor to this winter’s record warmth.

He ends with:

I expect that the unnaturally warm winters we’ve experienced the past two years in the U.S. will become the norm ten years from now–and may already be the new norm.

I know I’ve been posting a lot about the excessive warmth we’ve seen this winter, but I can’t really believe it. I’ve only been a “weather geek,” for about 15 years but I do know for sure that there certainly has been nothing like this since I’ve been alive, and most likely since anyone reading this has been alive. It seems to me that climate change is not going to be something that happens gradually over hundreds of years, but more likely something that happens very quickly in a rapid chain reaction. The melting of the Artic ice caps is happening and will (as mentioned above) prevent normal cooling in winters, which will melt more ice caps more quickly, which will mean warmer winters, which will melt more ice caps even more quickly…etc. It appears to be happening.

I guess the obvious question I need to ask myself is, what can I do personally to make a difference?




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